Models are Problematic
Image by ~jjjohn~ via FlickrPeople love models, especially when they’re big, complex and
quantitative. Models make us feel safe. They take the uncertainty of
the future and break it down into neat, bite-sized equations. But
here’s the problem with models, which is really a problem with the
human mind. We become so focused on the predictions of the model - be
it the cod population, or the risk of mortgage derivatives - that we
stop questioning the basic assumptions of the model. (Instead, the
confirmation bias seeps in and we devote way too much mental energy to
proving the model true.) It’s not just about black swans or random
outliers. After all, there was no black swan event that triggered this
most recent financial mess. There was simply an exquisite model,
churning out extremely profitable predictions, that happened to be
based on a false premise.
- Jonah Lehrer in Dangerous Models
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=a06047fd-b5bf-4f02-9a4e-ad9b46a2328f)



I feel like staying green this week. Green makes me happy and I'd love to make you and Earth happy too :-) All you have to do is join
One of my friends - Morten has lately decided to follow his passion and open a small company where he takes people for diving trips to
It is raining outside and it feels like fall but weekend is just round the corner. I am looking forward to quite evening with book, cup of tea and warm blanket. Cosy and relaxing. But before I will find my sofa I would like to share with you a couple great links, sites worth to check out during the weekend. The picture should keep the sunny days in your mind forever. Let the sun be with you!



products. 


